Wilma, Wilma, Wilma

October 22, 2005

Hurricane Wilma is unpredictable, to say the least. Where it’s going and what it going to do has at best been a guess.

Varying Wilma Models Confound Forecasters

Mayfield said one of the models used for Wilma has been a “windshield wiper,” widely varying each time it was been used. In some computer runs, it showed Wilma off the coast of Maine after five days. In others, the same model showed the storm off the coast of Cuba.

When the models agree, it is simple for forecasters to determine the path and speed of a hurricane. When the models disagree, forecasters often use a consensus to determine what they believe is the correct path and speed of a hurricane, Mayfield said.

When in doubt — punt. That’s what is currently going on. The public is being whipped into a froth down here in SWFL, the results of the hype, exaggeration and errors in reporting during Katrina. It’s now having a deleterious effect, and people are clearly panicking — not good.

It was not a good thing that in the MSM’s haste to ‘blame Bush’ that the latest event used in that hapless endeavor happened to be a hurricane. When real danger threatens, we need cool, objective evaluation, followed by calculated actions. We need a media that reports cold hard facts, so people can act accordingly. What we got from the MSM was hype, an illusion, a lie — Unfortunately, this has stuck in the public minds eye, and it is causing unnecessary reaction and actions to Wilma. We saw this over reaction first with Rita, where millions were unnecessarily evacuated, and now we are seeing a similar knee jerk reaction in SWFL. People are now being told to evacuate days before any shelters are available. The roads are clogged with people going who knows where. Hotels are booked, and canceled nearly as fast as they get booked.

How do people know they are not evacuating right into the path of the oncoming storm track? Pandemonium when we need sanity.


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October 22, 2005

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