The ISM-Chicago Business Survey, a regional view of the national economy, is a time-tested, market-moving report. The CHICAGO Report is available to subscribers 3 minutes before its release to the public 8:45 a.m. CT on the last working day each month. The Chicago Business Barometer, summarizing current business activity, also is known as Chicago Purchasing Manager Index or Chicago PMI. The Barometer is considered to be a leading indicator of the USA economy.
April 2013: The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported April’s Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.4 to 49.0, a 3-1/2 year low. Except for a minor gain in New Orders, all Business Activity measures weakened in April with five of seven now in contraction. BUSINESS ACTIVITY: SUPPLIER DELIVERIES, PRICES PAID, and PRODUCTION: all lowest since 2009; ORDER BACKLOGS: ten months of contraction in the past 12 months; EMPLOYMENT: third month over month decline. BUYING POLICY: CAPITAL EQUIPMENT longest since August 2012; MRO SUPPLIES shortest in five months.
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“Dr Copper” is in contract mode … ‘Dr. Copper’ Tells Markets the Party’s Over: Albert Edwards
The price of copper has traditionally been one of the very best indicators of the future performance of the U.S. economy. The fact that it is down nearly 20 percent so far this year has many analysts extremely concerned…
Copper’s downward trend foreshadows a stock market collapse, according to Societe Generale’s famously bearish strategist Albert Edwards, who said equity markets will riot “Japan-style.”
“Copper is acting exactly as it did when I wrote about the impotence of liquidity in the face of the (then imminent) 2007 recession. Once again it is giving us an early warning that liquidity will not save risk assets: time to get out of equities,” Edwards wrote in his latest research note, on Thursday.
Three-month copper prices rallied 2.45 percent on Friday morning in London,but the metal is down 18.6 percent so far this year.
Commodities trader Dennis Gartman agreed with the view that downward movements in copper and other base metals are a bad sign for the global economy.
“The base metals do speak loudly, and they’re speaking very bearishly,” Gartman, who edits The Gartman Letter, told CNBC on Wednesday.
A PMI below 50 is recession ahead leading indicator.
Isn’t today the jobs, jobs bobs speech #1001. I wonder what another teleprompter seance is going to do? I suppose the sequester did it, but you already know the power of the sequester, didn’t you.