June 7, 2013
As the world waits breathless for some Goldilocks print in tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data, Gallup’s most recent survey of employment trends does not paint a pretty picture for the real economy. Though, by the ‘adjustment bureau’ and their Arima-X goal-seeking, nothing is ever clear, not only is the payroll-to-population (the number of people working) worse than a year ago but the unemployment rate is also rising with under-employment – at 18.0% – near 15 month highs. If the NFP print plays out in line with this, the estimate of 165k will be woefully over-optimistic, leaving the question of whether bad-is-good, or have we crossed the Rubicon of belief in moar is better.’
The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, worsened in May, dropping to 43.9%, from 44.5% in April. P2P is also down from May 2012, when it was 44.4%
The decline in P2P versus 2012 indicates that fewer people worked full-time for an employer this May compared with a year ago. The 43.9% found this May is similar to the 43.7% recorded in 2011 and 44.0% in 2010.
Gallup’s P2P metric is an estimate of the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted.
April 25, 2013
All those undocumented workers, pay no taxes, when workers go underground …
The growing underground economy may be helping to prevent the real economy from sinking further, according to analysts.
The shadow economy is a system composed of those who can’t find a full-time or regular job. Workers turn to anything that pays them under the table, with no income reported and no taxes paid — especially with an uneven job picture.
February 15, 2013
As a scary reality about Wal-Mart’s customers might be coming to a head.
reality hits consumers, not the intended results of the moochers and looters, get them rich people.
Wal-Mart shares are tanking after the company’s executives called February sales a “total disaster.”
“Have you ever had one of those weeks where your best-prepared plans weren’t good enough to accomplish everything you set out to do?” Wal-Mart exec Cameron Geiger wrote in one of the emails reported by Renee Dudley at Bloomberg.
“Well, we just had one of those weeks here at Walmart U.S. Where are all the customers? And where’s their money?” Geiger asked.
Wal-Mart is facing a scary reality: the ailing finances of its core customers, Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions, told us.
That would be all the low information Obama voters … pick u[ the Obama-phone, stat!!!
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November 27, 2012
While the just released Durable Goods orders report for October came in modestly better than expected (which many thought would be a decline due to Hurricane Sandy), the primary driver of this continues to be record durable good inventory accumulation. Excluding the noise, and focusing only on real, non-noisy economic strength metrics such as New Capital Goods Orders (technically defined as the year over year change in Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft), a very different and far uglier picture emerges. In fact, the October Y/Y Plunge of -8.1% in this major indicator was the biggest drop since 2009.
Currently we are on the right LOL!
Sort of doesn’t add up with Obama’s phony numbers does it?
To summarize: according to one of the least susceptible to manipulation indicators of US economic strength and growth, the US economy is now in a recession.
June 11, 2012
But its informative at the 1930s thinking it shoows us … there is no no good reason why the Obama campaign should be sending David Axelrod out on TV for the president. He is consistently terrible, as we saw on CNN on Sunday:
Axelrod is expert at disguising liberals as moderates and convincing already committed liberals that the opposition is evil incarnate. But neither of those talents is much help to Obama now. In fact, the entire strategic vision of the campaign — things are improving, Romney is a right-wing kook — isn’t convincing anybody beyond the 45-48 percent of the vote-Democratic-no-matter-what portion of the electorate. And even Axelrod will admit Obama can’t win the race with that level of support.
You think Obama didn’t know that the private sector economy was a disaster? H9ow do you fix someone who thinks hiring teachers, firemen and police men is improving the economy. Who does he think hires these people.
You want upside down Communist thinking, that’s Obama. Does he know anybody that works in the private sector economy? He sure shows he has no understanding of what is what when it comes to economics.
Romney responds …
People doing make work jobs are not expanding the economy. If you think so, define how hiring a firefighter expands the economy.
April 17, 2012
From 2000 to 2012, the percentage of those who said they worry “a great deal” about drinking water pollution has plunged -24 points (from 72% to 48%), and worries about air pollution have fallen -23 points (from 59% to 36%).
Global warming concerns have also cooled. In fact, of the seven environmental issues Gallup tested, worries about global warming finished dead last.
Gallup offered two explanations for the study’s findings:
Americans’ concerns about environmental problems have dropped in recent years, coincident with their drop in support for various environmental policies and the higher priority they assign to economic growth than to environmental protection.
There are two likely explanations for the declining concern. First, Americans are a bit more positive now than they have been in the pastabout the quality of the environment. Second, the economic downturn has forced Americans to focus more on bread-and-butter economic issues than quality-of-life issues. It may be no coincidence that environmental concern was highest in 2000, when the U.S. was enjoying one of the strongest economies in recent memory, and that environmental concern has reached new lows recently, after the worst financial downturn in the last 25 years.
Gallup’s poll was based on a random sample of 1,024 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
April 11, 2012
Here are just seven economic facts that begin to capture the economic pain Americans are presently experiencing as they struggle to survive the ravages of the Obama economy :
1. Every fifth man in America is out of a job. Indeed, black male unemployment is now at the highest rate it has ever been since the U.S. government began collecting statistics on the subject in 1972. Just 56.9 percent of black men over the age of 20 are now working. Indeed, according to Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), one out of every six African Americans, male or female, are now unemployed.
2. Every seventh person you pass on the sidewalk now relies on food stamps.
3. On the last day of President Bush’s presidency, gas prices were $1.84 a gallon. Today under Obama, the average price of a gallon of gas costs $3.94. Easter weekend in Catalina Island, California, drivers saw prices topping $7 a gallon.
4. In 2006 and 2007, 90% of all college graduates found a job. Under Obama, just 56% of college graduates are able to find a job.
5. More than one in four U.S. homeowners are “under water” or owe more than their homes are worth. The housing crisis has now destroyed $7 trillion in U.S. household wealth. Another 9.5 million homes are still at risk of default, sparking what analysts believe will be a second wave of foreclosures in the months to come.
6. President Obama has increased the national debt more in three years than President Bush did in eight. Under Bush, the debt rose $4.899 trillion in eight years. In three years, Obama has exploded the debt by $4.939 trillion. And that was with two wars.
7. A record 87,897,000 Americans are no longer in the labor force. When the number of individuals who have stopped looking for a job and/or who are working part-time but desire full-time employment is included–a figure known as the “underemployment rate”–real unemployment stands at 19.1%.
As President Obama said in a speech a week ago, “In three years we’ve begun to see what change looks like.”
September 30, 2011
Joe’s mouth tells the truth.