The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that ‘an event’ is a surprise to the observer(public) and has a major impact.
After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
- The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
The “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.
So who would be trying to generate a “Black Swan??? Is that what Obama is trying to do with the Osama bin Laden Get? Didn’t work did it?
A Black Swan event may not be possible with the advent of the Internet, but it doesn’t mean unscrupulous people won’t try. Is this why tyranny seeks to control the Internet, and corporations like “FaceBook”. Think, control of social internet, social interaction, and what that might be to tyrant wanna-be types. Obama has spoke about Facebook in these terms … But with Obama, it leads always to government control and not freedom. Think censorship, and the power to get speech removed that “offends”. Who? Abortionists try, and in many cases succeed doing this all the time.
Heard about the Marine Discharged for Anti-Obama Facebook Posts?
Think Global Warming and the mass hysteria that initially generated. And what has now happened when other get involved, and tell the truth to the masses. But it was driven at it’s root by Big Government, and controlling the public masses by controlling energy use.
Black swan events were introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2004 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events, and market events. His 2007 book revised and completed in 2010, The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as “black swans”—undirected and unpredicted.
He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of black swan events.
A little history — The term black swan derives from a Latin expression — its oldest known reference comes from the poet Juvenal’s characterization of something being “rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno”. In English “a rare bird in the lands, very much like a black swan”. When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist.
The importance of the simile lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the phrase’s underlying logic, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.
Global Warming Hoax, the warm blanket of CO2 over the equator has been proved to not be true. And then further backed up by scientists own emails, how they were faking it, or if you prefer, lying all the time. But look at the billions of dollars wasted on a hoax.
One could define the founding of America, and the writing and ratification of the US Constitution as “Black Swan” events, abnormal in the history of man. This leads to the phrase “American Exceptionalism” … Yet in hindsight it is rationalized as perfectly normal behavior. Yet historically, as Hyatt points out, America is unique in man’s history. Commit to America, freedom, self government of mankind — freedom from an oppressor, an overseer, or a tyrant. Tyranny, slavery and subjects are the normal courses of governing man.
I mean. who would have though a rag tag 18th century army could beat the world’s super power, the British. And how that would change the world …
Juvenal’s phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers. In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Western Australia in 1697, the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.