Democrats Panicking

Oops, it really is the economy stupid …

Democratic loyalists are beginning to panic about President Obama’s re-election prospects, according to this report in the Washington Post. The latest cause for alarm is a memo from Democracy Corps, a research group headed by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and political consultant James (“it’s the economy, stupid”) Carville. Based on their analysis of focus groups conducted in late May among swing voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Greenberg and Carville say that the current campaign message — which stresses progress made towards economic recovery — is out of touch with the daily pain voters are feeling.

It’s really hard to hide the closed shops the shuttered new malls, the misery of it all, not felt since the Jimmy Carter malaise days. The headwinds are blowing, and Obama’s policies are fueling them.

The first two paragraphs:

What is clear from this fresh look at public consciousness on the economy is how difficult this period has been for both non-college-educated and college-educated voters – and how vulnerable the prevailing narratives articulated by national Democratic leaders are.[1] We will face an impossible headwind in November if we do not move to a new narrative, one that contextualizes the recovery but, more importantly, focuses on what we will do to make a better future for the middle class.

It is elites who are creating a conventional wisdom that an incumbent president must run on his economic performance – and therefore must convince voters that things are moving in the right direction.  They are wrong, and that will fail.  The voters are very sophisticated about the character of the economy; they know who is mainly responsible for what went wrong and they are hungry to hear the President talk about the future.  They know we are in a new normal where life is a struggle – and convincing them that things are good enough for those who have found jobs is a fool’s errand.  They want to know the plans for making things better in a serious way – not just focused on finishing up the work of the recovery.

The memo authors urge Team Obama to switch to a new narrative that focuses on what Obama will do to make a better future for the middle class. Otherwise, they say, “we will face an impossible head wind in November.”

Switch to what they didn’t say, but I would say it’s going to be really tough to change the narrative from the failing economy. Did they see the headlines today? Unlikely.

Greenberg and Carville are not alone in feeling pessimistic. According to the Post, eight other prominent Democratic strategists interviewed share that sentiment. They also view Obama’s team as resistant to advice and assistance from those who are not part of its core.

Democrats spent way to much time laughing at the struggling Republicans in the primary, not realizing how big a challeneg they fact lyiong to the American people about Obama’s economy. You want truth, listen to Obama latest ad to the black community.

Listen to the 60-second spot here.

The Barack Obama re-election campaign Tuesday will air its first radio ad targeting African-Americans, campaign officials confirmed.

The 60-second ad, entitled “We’ve Got Your Back,” appeals to black voters’ nostalgia about the election of the nation’s first African-American president, calling for those voters to stand with the president again in November. …

The ads are being placed nationally by Fuse Advertising, an African-American owned agency based in St. Louis, Missouri, which also was contracted by the Obama campaign in 2008.

If you have to ask your most loyal constituency to cover your back, well I think you can see the problem. Don’t candidates normal cover the back of the constituency? I guess the black’s economy is suffering as well … It really is their economy too.

Dem pollster warns that voters will scoff at claims of recovery

Barack Obama wants to ask for a second term as President on the message that “America is back,” claiming that he has pulled the nation into a path for prosperity and job creation.  That will come asa big surprise to American workers, who have not seen any improvement in their job situation or economic position, warns Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg:

Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg is out with a must-read polling memo this morning, which offers some eye-opening advice to President Obama and his re-election team.  After testing several of the president’s economic messages, he finds the argument that the economy is back on the right track polls miserably – and “produces disastrous results.”

“It is weaker than even the weakest Republican message and is 10 points weaker in intensity than either Republican message,” Greenberg wrote. “A third said this message made them less likely to support Barack Obama. Alarmingly, this message barely receives majority support among self-identified Democrats – and even less support among all other groups.”

The memo reads as a glaring wake-up call to the White House, which has been trumpeting improving economic figures lately.   Greenberg notes that voters are reporting “no improvement” in their job situation since last June, and have experienced reduced wages and benefits and health insurance coverage.  The picture Greenberg’s polling paints is an America public still deeply pessimistic about their future, and skeptical of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Democrats scoff at Obama’s claims on job creation, Greenberg warns in his analysis:

One of the President’s weakest operative frameworks highlights recent progress on job creation.  This message is potentially dangerous for Democrats.  During the State of the Union, we watched the dial lines go flat, with even Democrats peaking below 70 when the President highlighted recent jobs numbers.

In post-speech focus groups, respondents explained why this part of the speech did not resonate for them: first, and most importantly, they have not seen these jobs or felt the effects of job creation.  But they are also deeply concerned that these jobs are not permanent, that these new jobs belie much deeper structural problems in the economy, and that the new jobs that have been created are far inferior to the more stable, full-time, well-paying middle class jobs that have been lost over the last decade.  One Democratic-leaning participant said, “Just pouring sugar on the thing to create a few temporary jobs is going to get us no place.” Many told us that these statistics were meaningless because they are still just numbers to them. One Republican-leaning participant was incredulous: “I don’t see the kind of jobs numbers that I hear about from him.”

In other words, Obamanomics and its gimmicky, do nothing temporary nature and its short-term distortions in statistics don’t even fool Democrats who are inclined to believe Obama.

The Recovery Master:

Everybody knows what’s behind the curtain…