After totally blowing the forecasts since 2005, this time the forecasters step out with a word of caution. Basically, NOAA is saying we don’t have a clue. They can’t really stick it to the global warming hoaxers at this critical time, the charge is on for more taxes, so they punt. Hurricane prediction is nothing more than a statistical guessing game, with a touch of experience. No one can predict the future, we just aren’t that advanced.
Without further ado, here is what they said today for the 2008 season:
The team of Professors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) released their first revision to their initial forecast for the 2009 hurricane season. They now see this year as an average season, down from their prior assessment of it being an active season. The new forecast calls for 12 named storms, down from 14 in their December 10, 2008, initial forecast. These storms will produce six hurricanes and two intense ones, each category lower by one. While the number of named storms is above the 50-year average spanning 1950-2000, the number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes is in line with the historical averages for that period.
So what is the problem, truth be known, it’s the cooling climate that is introducing the ‘uncertainty’. Notice winter doesn’t seem to want to end? Global cooling, it’s bad for hurricanes because it lowers the water temperature. Here is the latest SST chart, direct off the satellites, no interpretation.
Global warming, which increases the water temperature, does not have the same effect. Why? Because once the threshold for formation has been crossed, and the water is warm enough to sustain, the hurricane takes on a life of it’s own. Once loosed in the atmosphere, air currents steering the hurricane at time of formation, have a whole lot more to do with where the hurricane makes landfall, and how strong it gets, than does anything else.
Rig Zone has the details and analysis. Yes this is the oil drillers, they take special interest in the truth of weather, not the hoaxing.
I have a vested interest in this issue, since we live on a bay in Florida.