Ugly Q3 GDP Confirms Personal Consumption Collapsing; Headline “Growth” Driven By Government, And Inventory Accumulation

Government money printing, it’s all that is going on. You are being lied to daily to put you to sleep, thinking all is well, when it sure as hell is not.

Kiddies don’t you get it, the Federal Government is borrowing the pants off our country, while strangling the private sector economy with Federal regulations. Our current debt is over $86 TRILLION dollars.

Meanwhile te private sector, the real economy is collapsing.

Zero Hedge writes:

A stunning success”, the administration sycophants would say. Absolutely wrong. Because a quick glance at the underlying numbers shows the true picture of the economy which contracted far more than most expected, with personal consumption collapsing to 1.4% Q/Q, on hopes of a 1.9% rise, and down from 2.0%. In fact, at 0.99% personal consumption expenditures – the core driver of 70% of the US economy – were a tiny 36% of the headline number. Ironically today’s second GDP revision was far worse when analyzed at the component level, than the first Q3 estimate, which while lower overall at 2.0%, at least had personal consumption nearly 50% higher at 1.42%, or well over half of the total contribution. So what drove “growth” in Q3? Nothing short of the most hollow and worst components of GDP: Government Spending, which soared to 0.67% of the annualized number, the first positive print in years, and of course, Inventories, which were responsible for 30% of the headline number. Finally, and most importantly, Fixed Investment, aka CapEx, was a meager 0.1%, or the lowest GDP contribution since Q1 2011. Without CapEx there is no corporate revenue growth (and future hiring intentions) period.

Even Reuters couldn’t muster up much enthusiasm for these numbers:

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, as faster inventory accumulation and export growth offset weak consumer spending and the first drop in business investment in more than a year.

While the growth pace was much quicker than the 2.0 percent rate the government estimated last month and the best since the fourth quarter of 2011, it was hardly a sign of strength in the economy given the boost from restocking and weaker consumer spending.

That will likely be lost in the fourth quarter and inventories may be a drag on growth, which is already being weighed down by fears of austerity, known as the fiscal cliff.

In other economic news, the rate of new jobless claims returned to its 18-month level as the effects of Hurricane Sandy dissipated:

In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 393,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 416,000. The 4-week moving average was 405,250, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 397,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending November 17, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 17 was 3,287,000, a decrease of 70,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,357,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,296,250, an increase of 6,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,290,000.

The data table at the end shows the major decreases in state numbers from the previous reporting week, which is dominated by Sandy states — except for California, whose decrease in new claims goes unexplained.

Basically, the two reports indicate that the stagnation status quo continues.

In the meantime, all those hoping that the US consumer is finally waking up from his slumber and is spending (on credit of course) like a drunken sailor (for anything more than iPads using student loan proceeds), will have to wait until Q1 2013, as the Q4 2012 number will be even uglier than the one just released.


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