Biggest Miss On Record

Following UMich confidence’s biggest miss on record, the Conference Board misses expectations printing at its lowest since May 2013 as the last data was revsied higher.

This is the largest MoM drop since March. Crucially, the headline index was saved by a surge in the “present situation” as expectations for the future plunged. As a reminder, Consumer Confidence has an awkward 4 year 4 month pattern of dysphoria to euphoria (though at progressively lower levels) and today’s data merely confirms that the cycle of exuberance may have been broken.

 

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