DRAM supply growth set to decelerate in 2012, says Gartner analyst

With chipmakers slowing down their capacity expansions as well as delaying the transition to newer process technologies due to company mergers and acquisitions, the global bit growth of DRAM in 2012 will decelerate significantly in 2012, according to Brady Wang, an analyst with Gartner.

Worldwide DRAM bit shipments are forecast to grow only 26.9% in 2012, said Wang. Even without considering Elpida Memory’s bankruptcy, the bit growth would still decelerate to 30-35%, Wang indicated.

Elpida’s fall will likely cause the global supply for DRAM memory to decline, Wang pointed out. Meanwhile, the firm’s present bankruptcy proceedings will inevitably put off its partners’ transitions to next-generation node technologies, Wang said.

With supply growth slowing, the DRAM industry may face shortage problems in the second half of 2012, Wang stated. But prices are unlikely to rise significantly as a result of lower costs, Wang added.

As for NAND flash, since the memory’s targeted applications are more diversified, this will boost its market size to outpace that of DRAM memory in 2013, according to Gartner. The NAND flash market is forecast to reach US$35.6 billion in 2013, compared to US$34 billion for the DRAM sector, said the research firm.

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